AI 株価予測 20231201の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231201 8306MUFG
GDP成長率、個人消費の堅調にも関わらず、パウエルは利上げを強調しなかったため、株式市場は歓喜の宴を始めたようだ。Despite the strong GDP growth rate and robust personal consumption, Powell's lack of emphasis on rate hikes seems to have initiated a celebratory atmosphere in the stock market.
ただ、NASDAQは未だ天井圏から脱却しておらず、これが14日の金利決定に向かって上昇するかで今後の動向は決まりそうだ。However, the NASDAQ has yet to break free from its high-altitude range, and whether it will rise towards the interest rate decision on the 14th will likely determine its future direction.
日本株はNYダウ、SP500、RUSSEL2000の急騰を受けて上昇するだろうが、長続きするかどうかが心配。Japanese stocks are expected to rise following the sharp increases in the NY Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, but there are concerns about whether this surge will be sustainable.
NY株は過去ハイテクにより牽引されてきた。SP500の２５％がMagnificent7により占められている。これから高金利の景気後退効果が出ようとしている。その矢先に株高となっても、納得が行かない市場参加者は多いだろう。The NY stocks have been led by the past high-tech sector. The Magnificent 7 comprise 25% of the S&P 500. As the effects of a high-interest rate economic downturn loom, if the market continues to rise, many participants may not find it convincing.
雇用のさらなる悪化や逆イールド解消が歴史的に株価下落のサインであることから、市場は今後数カ月後の本格的な株式暴落に向けてチキンレースの様相を呈している。Since further deterioration of employment as well as normalization of inverse yield curve indicate the stock decline historically, market may be in a chicken race towards a major market crash coming up in few month.
トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/５0。長期枠利用は0/50。Trade details are here. 0/50 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/50.
メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.
逆イールドは健在。Reverse yield curve still presents.
外国人の先物買いは大きいが、現物買いも３０００億円台になったのは注目に値する。Foreign Investor's future buy is still large however, it is worth paying attention that cash stock purchase now reached JPY3bn level.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
ドル円は財務省の大規模な為替介入が始まった。USD/JPY is testing 150 while major intervention by MOF has started.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.
三菱商事は上昇後反落。下落トレンドからは離脱。MTC went up but showed sharp decline. Got out of downward trend.
長谷工は決算日を迎え、７－９月は増益だが、通期は据え置いた。Haseko's Q2 result was announced. July-Sep earning has increased but remain the annual result forecast unchanged.
ウクライナは徐々にロシアにより占領された領土を奪還している。本格的な奪還には、さらに欧米の支援が必要な状態。Ukraine is gradually taking Russian occupied territories however, further assistance from western allies is necessary to see real take back.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
直近の金利は、インフレ率の低下傾向を受けて、低下基調。これが、軟着陸シナリオによる株価上昇の原因。この上昇は、逆イールドカーブ解消後１年以内に起こるであろう景気後退まで続く可能性がある。Immediate interest rate is on down trend facing the trend of interest rate decline due to reduction of inflation rate trend. This is the basis for recent stock hike assuming soft landing of economy. This may last until recession that is supposed to come within one year after the resolution of the reverse yield.
NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.
直近の金利は、インフレ率の低下傾向を受けて、低下基調。これが、軟着陸シナリオによる株価上昇の原因。この上昇は、逆イールドカーブ解消後１年以内に起こるであろう景気後退まで続く可能性がある。Immediate interest rate is on down trend facing the trend of interest rate decline due to reduction of inflation rate trend. This is the basis for recent stock hike assuming soft landing of economy. This may last until recession that is supposed to come within one year after the resolution of the reverse yield.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
市場は利下げ目線で、パーテイーを始めようとしているが、完全なフライングだろう。４％超の金利が長期間続くことの重みがこれから深く認識されることになる。The market is looking to start the party with a rate cut perspective, but it may be premature. The weight of interest rates above 4% persisting for an extended period will be more deeply recognized in the near future.
ドル金利は５％を付けた後、急落、円金利は１％越え容認ののち、急騰して反落。Dollar interest rate touched 5% but later went down sharp, meanwhile, JPY interest rate has gone up after the revision of YCC policy, then went down sharp.
3LB Month/Week/Day
日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.
[今回予測20231201］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231124］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20231201］Forecast at this time
変化なし。No Change.
[前回予測20231124］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
