AI 株価予測 20231222の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20231222 8306MUFG
パウエル発言の曲解から急落した米金利。そして急騰したNY株は、週中、包み足陰線で下落したものの週末に向かってじり高。クリスマス明けが急騰になるのか、急落になるのかは相場を支配する大口機関投資家のみが知るところだ。このユーフォリアが来年にかけて続くことは考えられず、ある時点で景気悪化を反映して逆回転が始まる。The sudden drop in US bond yields due to a misinterpretation of Powell's remarks led to a surge in New York stock prices. Despite a midweek decline marked by bearish engulfing candles, stocks showed resilience toward the weekend. Whether the market will experience a surge or a decline after Christmas depends solely on major institutional investors who dominate the market. It's unlikely that this euphoria will persist into next year, and a reversal reflecting economic downturn is expected to commence at some point.
１９日火曜日、植田は大方の予想通り金利政策は現状維持とした。発言を聞く限り、春闘までは利上げはなさそう。週末のインフレ率は２．８％と、前月より下がっており、現状維持を裏付けた。ただ、金利決定会合に財務省大臣が異例の出席をし、結果、来年度予算予想金利が１．９％と大幅に引き上げられたことから、来年度中の緩和政策解除が視野に入ってきたことは間違いなさそうだ。 On Tuesday, the 19th, as anticipated, Ueda maintained the current interest rate policy. Based on the statements made, it seems unlikely that there will be any rate hikes until the spring labor negotiations. The weekend's inflation rate stood at 2.8%, lower than the previous month, supporting the decision to maintain the status quo. However, the extraordinary attendance of the Minister of Finance at the interest rate decision meeting resulted in a significant upward revision of the projected interest rate for the next fiscal year to 1.9%, indicating a potential easing policy withdrawal in the coming year.
日本株はNYの上昇には追従せず、下落基調が継続。ただ、MUFGは金曜日に日足の新値陽転を果たした。ただ、まだ下落レンジ内である可能性は高い。MUFG managed to achieve a bullish reversal on the 3LB chart by Friday. Yet, the likelihood of remaining within a downward range still stands high.
トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0。長期枠利用は0。Trade details are here. 0 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0.
メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.
米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.
根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.
米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing as COVID relief funds continue to deplete.
米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months.
米逆逆イールドは健在。US reverse yield curve still presents.
外国人の現物買いが３週ぶりに戻ってきた。Foreign investors started to buy cash equity for the 1st time in 4 weeks.
PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.
ドル円はパウエルの弱腰発言を受けた金利低下をきっかけに暴落。The USD/JPY plummeted in response to Powell's dovish remarks, triggering a decrease in interest rates.
QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.
新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new 3LB highs are ascending across daily, weekly, and monthly charts. AI predictions indicate an upward trend across the daily, weekly, and monthly charts as well.
三菱商事は上昇後反落。下落トレンドからは離脱。MTC went up but showed sharp decline. Got out of downward trend.
長谷工は決算日を迎え、７－９月は増益だが、通期は据え置いた。Haseko's Q2 result was announced. July-Sep earning has increased but remain the annual result forecast unchanged.
ウクライナの領土奪還は続いているものの、兵器が不足してきている。更なる支援が必要だが、欧米の足並みは乱れつつある。米国は大統領選の結果次第でウクライナへの支援は停止する。プーチンはウクライナへの支援は続かないだろうと公言している。Although Ukraine continues to reclaim its territory, there's a shortage of weapons. Further support is necessary, but there's a growing disarray in the alignment of Western countries. The support to Ukraine from the United States will depend on the outcome of the presidential election. Putin has publicly stated that support to Ukraine will not continue.
米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY
NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後１年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.
AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.
現在、SPXの２５％がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.
どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.
現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.
NYは窓を開けて急上昇。ただ、今後１年以上も高金利が継続することを忘れ去ったような急激な上げは、早晩反転するだろう。New York saw a rapid surge with windows opened. However, the sudden sharp rise, seemingly forgetting that high interest rates will continue for over a year, will likely reverse sooner or later.
AIの革新はすさまじい。ただ、総人口の消費をシフトさせる経路はまだ不明確だ。既存のハイテク業界に要素技術として取り込まれて、そこから新しいサービスなどの形で大ヒットするのだろうか。The innovation in AI is astounding. However, the path to shift overall consumption patterns in the population remains unclear. It might get incorporated as an elemental technology in existing high-tech industries, leading to the emergence of new hit services or products from there.
現在、SPXの２５％がGAFAMにより占められている。マイクロソフトはWindows、オフィスで人類の生産性向上を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。Googleはインターネット検索エンジンから始まりネットの利便性を飛躍的に向上させることで大ヒットした。劇的な登場を遂げたLLMを誰がどのように大ヒット商品に仕立て上げるかがポイント。Currently, 25% of the SPX is dominated by GAFAM. Microsoft achieved massive success by significantly improving human productivity with Windows and Office. Google soared to success by substantially enhancing internet convenience, starting with its search engine. The key lies in how someone can fashion LLM, which has made a dramatic entrance, into a blockbuster product.
どのような商品であったとしても、人々がそれに喜んでお金を払う、企業が儲かる、新しい価値を創造するものでなければいけない。アルファゼロが人類の囲碁最強者を打ち負かしたのは記憶に新しい。しかし、現時点で、アルファゼロを応用した大ヒットサービスは出てきていない。Regardless of the product, it must be something people are willing to pay for joyfully, something profitable for companies, and something that creates new value. The recent memory of AlphaGo defeating humanity's top Go players is vivid. However, as of now, there hasn't been a hit service leveraging AlphaGo's technology.
現状、LLM大成功-->GPU増産-->NVIDIA大暴騰というシナリオで動いていると思われるが、2000年のドットコムバブルのようにならないとも限らない。Currently, it seems to be moving along the scenario of LLM's massive success leading to increased GPU production and NVIDIA's soaring, but there's no guarantee it won't turn into something akin to the dot-com bubble of 2000.
米金利の今後 US FF rate forecast
FOMCでのパウエルの至極まともな答弁を利下げのサインと市場は曲解し、パーティーを始めた。The markets misinterpreted Powell's very reasonable responses during the FOMC as a signal for interest rate cuts and began celebrating prematurely.
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今週 This week
ドル金利は、パウエルの利上げ停止の可能性メッセージを曲解、急激に下落。円金利もつられて低下。The dollar interest rates rapidly declined due to a misinterpretation of Powell's message about halting interest rate hikes, causing a drop. This decline also affected yen interest rates, leading to a decrease.
JGB10Y, UST10Y
米インフレ亢進は止まった模様。一部、景気後退のサインも見えるが、全体として景気は強く、利下げを語れる段階にはないのは明らか。It appears that the rapid rise in U.S. inflation has halted. While some signs of an economic slowdown are visible, overall economic conditions remain robust, and it's evident that we're not at a stage where interest rate cuts are being discussed.
US Core Inflation Rate
[今回予測20231222］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20231215］Previous Forecast
[今回予測20231222］Forecast at this time
[前回予測20231215］Previous Forecast
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
Midterm Range
長期的には１年後をめどに暴落開始だが、それまでは上昇を続けるだろう。Long term forecast is negative expecting market crash after 1 year however, market may still going up until then.
