AI 株価予測 20240913の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast -20240913

１１日のCPI発表では、総インフレは低下したが、コアは微増した。インフレは概ね下降トレンドにあることが分かった。トランプとカマラの討論会で、カマラはトランプを圧倒し、バイデンからカマラに候補者を交代したことが成功だったことを示した。結果、カマラの支持率はトランプを上回ったが、大統領選は選挙人獲得数なので、全米的な支持率は即当選には結びつかない。激戦区での当落が決め手になる。In the CPI release on the 11th, overall inflation decreased, but core inflation slightly increased. It became clear that inflation is generally on a downward trend. In the debate between Trump and Kamala, Kamala dominated Trump, showing that the decision to switch the candidate from Biden to Kamala was a success. As a result, Kamala's approval rating surpassed Trump's, but since the presidential election is based on the number of electoral votes, national approval ratings do not directly lead to victory. The outcome in swing states will be the deciding factor.

１９日のFOMCでの利下げ幅について、CPIの結果を受けて０．５の可能性が遠のき０．２５が主流となるにつれ、ドル円は一時反転しドル高となった。しかし、金曜日になり、FRBのリークに使われるWSJのニックティミラウスの記事でFRBは現在CPIより雇用を注視しているため０．５の可能性も高いと報道され、ドル金利、ドル円は一転して再下落に突入した。Regarding the rate cut in the FOMC meeting on the 19th, after the CPI results, the likelihood of a 0.5% cut diminished, and a 0.25% cut became the mainstream expectation, leading to a temporary reversal and dollar appreciation. However, on Friday, an article by Nick Timiraos of the WSJ, often used for Fed leaks, reported that the Fed is currently focusing more on employment than CPI, suggesting that a 0.5% cut is still a strong possibility. As a result, dollar interest rates and the USD/JPY pair reversed and began to decline again.

週明け、月曜日は日本は休日だが、米国市場ではドル円下落、日経先物、ADRとも下落となる可能性が高い。At the start of the week, Monday will be a holiday in Japan, but in the U.S. markets, it is highly likely that the USD/JPY will fall, along with declines in Nikkei futures and ADRs.

来週は１９日にFOMC、２０日に日本のインフレ率発表および日銀の金利決定会合がある。FOMCの結果により、ドル円、日経平均に大きな動きがあるだろう。日銀の金利決定会合では利上げは無いだろう。Next week, the FOMC will meet on the 19th, followed by Japan’s inflation rate announcement and the BOJ's interest rate decision meeting on the 20th. The FOMC's results will likely cause significant movement in the USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225. There is unlikely to be a rate hike at the BOJ's interest rate decision meeting.

現状、失業率上昇でサームルール点灯、米貯蓄率低下、ドル金利逆イールド解消など、景気後退への外堀は埋まってきているものの、肝心のGDPが強いという現象があり、下落局面の中間反騰のブルトラップにいる。よって早晩下落を再開するものと思われる。Currently, while the external factors pointing to a recession—such as the rise in the unemployment rate triggering the Sahm Rule, the decline in the U.S. savings rate, and the resolution of the dollar yield curve inversion—are becoming more apparent, the strong GDP figures indicate that we may be in a bull trap during a mid-downtrend rally. Therefore, it is expected that the decline will resume sooner or later.

長期的なドル円は、米金利下げは現状５％台から２％台へ戻り、円金利上げは０．２５％ずつ上げていくことにより最終的に１２０円台まで戻るシナリオであると予想される。そうなると、１６０円に及ぶ過剰な円安を享受してきた日本の輸出企業は利益が減少すると考えられる。その結果、日経平均はドル金利上げが始まった２０２２年４月時点の２万８千円ぐらいまで下落するだろう。In the long term, it is predicted that the USD/JPY will eventually return to the 120-yen range, as U.S. interest rates decrease from the current 5% range to around 2%, and Japanese interest rates gradually rise by 0.25% increments. If this happens, Japanese export companies, which have benefited from the excessive yen depreciation to around 160 yen, are likely to see a reduction in profits. As a result, the Nikkei average is expected to fall to around 28,000 yen, the level it was at in April 2022 when the U.S. interest rate hikes began.

ここ１ー２週間Next 1-2 Weeks:

月末が決算基準日であるが、半期で１．５％強程度の配当のためにポジションを保持するのはリスクが高すぎる。The end of the month marks the fiscal closing date, but holding positions for a dividend of about 1.5% over the half-year period carries too much risk.

１０－１２月October-December:

選挙は１１月上旬にあり、混乱が予想されると同時に、思わぬ下落でチャンスが訪れる可能性もある。The election will be held in early November, and while chaos is expected, there is also a possibility that unexpected drops could present opportunities.

不確定要因Uncertainties:

米利下げがドル円を下落させ、それが、IMMなどの制度為替投機以外のOTCベースのキャリートレードの巻き戻しも誘起させる可能性があり、そうなると、キャリートレードベースで買われてきた米国株も手じまい売りで下落するかもしれない。A U.S. rate cut could lead to a decline in USD/JPY, which in turn may trigger the unwinding of OTC-based carry trades, not just speculative currency trades like IMM. If that happens, U.S. stocks that have been bought on the back of carry trades could also see sell-offs, causing declines.

トレードTrading:

引き続き様子見でノーポジション。Continue to stay on the sidelines with no positions.

MUFGは明らかに上昇トレンドから離脱している。MUFG showed outright deviation from uprising trend.

ドル円は短期上昇トレンドから大きく外れ、中期の上昇トレンドの下限抵抗線を試そうとしている。USD/JPY also showed major deviation from short term uprising trend. For longer term upward trend, it looks it is going to challenge the resistance as well.

トランプ対ハリスの討論会の結果、ハリスの支持率がトランプを上回る結果となった。As a result of the debate between Trump and Harris, Harris's approval rating surpassed Trump's.

メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体も急落。

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

ドルの２－１０年の逆イールドは解消したが、カーブ全体は未だいびつで順イールドとは言えない感じ。

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく反発した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant rebound.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.