AI 株価予測 20240927の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240927

先週は２６日木曜日が配当受取権利最終取引日であったが、月曜日から株価は軟調だった。自民党総裁選があり、大方の予想の高市を、石破が破り岸田の次の自民党総裁＝総理大臣となった。石破の勝利を受けて、ドル円は４円下落、日経平均先物は２５００円下落。石破はアベノミクスを否定（「保守政治家　わが政策、わが天命」（講談社））していたと考えられている。　Last week, Thursday the 26th was the ex-dividend date, but from Monday onward, stock prices remained weak. There was a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, where, contrary to most expectations, Ishiba defeated Takaichi to become the next LDP president, and thus the next Prime Minister, succeeding Kishida. Following Ishiba's victory, the dollar-yen exchange rate dropped by 4 yen, and Nikkei futures plummeted by 2,500 yen. Ishiba has been considered to oppose Abenomics, as outlined in his book, Conservative Politician: My Policies, My Destiny (Kodansha).

株式市場の大幅下落を見て、当選後のテレビ出演で従来の主張を変えて緩和継続を明言したものの、その後も下落は止まらなかった。来週の相場展開だが、早朝のドル円相場の方向がカギとなる。１４０円を破ってドル円が下落する仕掛けが始まると、日経平均はー２５００円を超えて下落するだろう。逆に、先週末のドル円下落が逆転し、ドル高になる場合は、先週金曜日のー２５００円日経平均株安は瞬間的な短期筋の仕掛けと巻き戻しで終わるということになる。Despite appearing on TV after his election and changing his previous stance by clearly stating his intention to continue monetary easing, the stock market continued to decline. Looking ahead to next week, the direction of the early morning dollar-yen exchange rate will be key. If the dollar weakens and breaks below 140 yen, it could trigger a further decline in the Nikkei beyond 2,500 yen. On the other hand, if the dollar recovers and strengthens, reversing last week's drop, the 2,500 yen drop in the Nikkei from last Friday could be seen as a temporary short-term move that will quickly reverse.

ただ、今回の総裁選に向けての上昇と下落は、噂で買ってニュースで売るの典型とも言える。上昇幅が過激だったため、高市が勝っても同様に下落していた可能性も高い。この市場の典型的な動きを石破に理解しろと言っても無理だろう。石破は「市場は短期に思惑で上下するもの」などとはぐらかしておけばよかったものを、質問の誘導であたかも自分の当選が下落を起こしたと思いこまされ、自説を曲げる不要な回答をし、言質を取られてしまったようだ。適切な経済アドバイザーを早期に手配すると良いだろう。However, the rise and fall leading up to this leadership election can be seen as a typical case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.' Since the rise was so extreme, it’s likely that the market would have dropped even if Takaichi had won. It’s probably impossible to expect Ishiba to understand this typical market movement. Ishiba should have just brushed it off with something like 'the market moves up and down in the short term based on speculation.' Instead, he was led by the questioning to believe that his own election caused the drop, and ended up giving an unnecessary response that contradicted his views, allowing them to take him at his word. It would be wise for him to arrange for an appropriate economic advisor as soon as possible.

岸田が菅からバトンタッチした際も同様の下落があったが、その際はMUFGで現在の価格でいうと５日ぐらいかけて、１４５１円から１３２０円ぐらいまでの下落があり、その後半値戻しまで反発した。A similar decline occurred when Kishida succeeded Suga, where MUFG's stock dropped from 1,451 yen to around 1,320 yen over the course of about five days, before bouncing back to recover half of the loss.

当選後のTV出演で今後の日程について石破はなるべく早い衆院解散を繰り返し主張していたが、現在のインフレによる国民生活窮乏での自民党支持率２０％状態では、自民党の下野さえ可能性が高まっている。早期の解散は新たな波乱の要因となる。とりわけ、予想されている投票日は米大統領選とほとんど同じ時期となり、混乱に拍車がかかりそうだ。In his post-election TV appearance, Ishiba repeatedly called for an early dissolution of the House of Representatives, but with the current inflation-driven economic hardship and the LDP's approval rating at around 20%, there is an increasing possibility that the LDP could lose power. An early dissolution could lead to further instability, particularly because the expected election day would coincide with the U.S. presidential election, exacerbating the confusion.

なお、１４０円を超えて下落していった場合のリスクとして、OTCベースの円キャリートレードの巻き戻しがある。米株はキャリートレードにより支えられている面が多分にあり、キャリトレードが巻き戻されると、自動的に米株投資を引き上げるための売却が始まる。Additionally, if the yen continues to strengthen past 140 yen, there is a risk of an unwinding of yen carry trades on an OTC basis. U.S. stocks have been largely supported by these carry trades, and if they are unwound, it would automatically trigger sell-offs to pull back from U.S. stock investments.

円高による企業収益の予想EPS算定の際の基準為替レートは円高が始まった７月から修正されていないようで、EPSはドル円下落にもかかわらず上昇を続けている。現在ドル円は２０２４年の年初まで下落している。円高回帰修正された想定為替レートを用い、EPSが修正されると、ドル円と同様、２０２４年の年初レベルまで日経平均予想が下落してしまう恐れがある。Regarding corporate earnings, the forecast exchange rate used for calculating estimated EPS has not been adjusted since the yen appreciation began in July. As a result, EPS has continued to rise despite the dollar-yen decline. Currently, the dollar-yen rate is dropping toward the beginning of 2024 levels. If EPS is recalculated using an exchange rate adjusted for the yen’s appreciation, there is a risk that, like the dollar-yen rate, the Nikkei forecast could also fall back to early 2024 levels.

長期的なドル円は、米金利下げは現状５％台から２％台へ戻り、円金利上げは０．２５％ずつ上げていくことにより最終的に１２０円台まで戻るシナリオであると予想される。そうなると、１６０円に及ぶ過剰な円安を享受してきた日本の輸出企業は利益が減少すると考えられる。その結果、日経平均はドル金利上げが始まった２０２２年４月時点の２万８千円ぐらいまで下落するだろう。In the long term, it is predicted that the USD/JPY will eventually return to the 120-yen range, as U.S. interest rates decrease from the current 5% range to around 2%, and Japanese interest rates gradually rise by 0.25% increments. If this happens, Japanese export companies, which have benefited from the excessive yen depreciation to around 160 yen, are likely to see a reduction in profits. As a result, the Nikkei average is expected to fall to around 28,000 yen, the level it was at in April 2022 when the U.S. interest rate hikes began.

ここ１ー２週間Next 1-2 Weeks:

月末が決算基準日であるが、半期で１．５％強程度の配当のためにポジションを保持するのはリスクが高すぎる。The end of the month marks the fiscal closing date, but holding positions for a dividend of about 1.5% over the half-year period carries too much risk.

１０－１２月October-December:

選挙は１１月上旬にあり、混乱が予想されると同時に、思わぬ下落でチャンスが訪れる可能性もある。The election will be held in early November, and while chaos is expected, there is also a possibility that unexpected drops could present opportunities.

不確定要因Uncertainties:

米利下げがドル円を下落させ、それが、IMMなどの制度為替投機以外のOTCベースのキャリートレードの巻き戻しも誘起させる可能性があり、そうなると、キャリートレードベースで買われてきた米国株も手じまい売りで下落するかもしれない。A U.S. rate cut could lead to a decline in USD/JPY, which in turn may trigger the unwinding of OTC-based carry trades, not just speculative currency trades like IMM. If that happens, U.S. stocks that have been bought on the back of carry trades could also see sell-offs, causing declines.

トレードTrading:

引き続き様子見でノーポジション。Continue to stay on the sidelines with no positions.

MUFGは明らかに上昇トレンドから離脱している。MUFG showed outright deviation from uprising trend.

ドル円は短期上昇トレンドから大きく外れ、中期の上昇トレンドの下限抵抗線を試そうとしている。USD/JPY also showed major deviation from short term uprising trend. For longer term upward trend, it looks it is going to challenge the resistance as well.

トランプ対ハリスの討論会の結果、ハリスの支持率がトランプを上回る結果となった。As a result of the debate between Trump and Harris, Harris's approval rating surpassed Trump's.

メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体も急落。

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

ドルの２－１０年の逆イールドは解消したが、カーブ全体は未だいびつで順イールドとは言えない感じ。

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく反発した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant rebound.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.