AI 株価予測 20240906の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240906

３日にISM製造業PMI、４日にJOLTS求人情報、５日にISMサービスPMI、６日に失業率があった。On the 3rd, there was the ISM Manufacturing PMI, on the 4th, the JOLTS job openings report, on the 5th, the ISM Services PMI, and on the 6th, the unemployment rate was released.

失業率は前月4.3％が4.2％に減少した。内訳はフルタイム雇用－43万8千、パートタイム雇用＋52万7千であり、また、50万人規模で在来の米国人の雇用が減り、替わりに、移民の雇用が増加した。The unemployment rate decreased from 4.3% in the previous month to 4.2%. The breakdown shows a decrease of 438,000 full-time jobs and an increase of 527,000 part-time jobs. Additionally, employment among native-born Americans decreased by around 500,000, while employment for immigrants increased.

その結果、当初米株、ドル円、日本株ともさほど動かないと思われたが、土曜日の朝になると、日経先物は1200円安、ドル円は２円安、米株も底割れとなった。来週は月曜日からギャップダウンして始まるだろう。As a result, initially, it was expected that U.S. stocks, the dollar-yen exchange rate, and Japanese stocks would not move significantly. However, by Saturday morning, Nikkei futures had dropped by 1,200 yen, the dollar-yen rate fell by 2 yen, and U.S. stocks broke down. Next week is expected to start with a gap down on Monday.

来週は11日水曜日に米CPI発表があり、トランプとカマラの初討論もある。金曜日はMSQでもあり、また先物勝負の展開で乱高下が予想される。Next week, on Wednesday the 11th, the U.S. CPI will be released, and there will also be the first debate between Trump and Kamala. On Friday, with the MSQ (Monthly Settlement of Quarterly contracts), sharp market fluctuations are expected, driven by futures trading.

現状、失業率上昇でサームルール点灯、米貯蓄率低下、ドル金利逆イールド解消など、景気後退への外堀は埋まってきているものの、肝心のGDPが強いという現象があり、下落局面の中間反騰のブルトラップにいる。よって早晩下落を再開するものと思われる。Currently, while the external factors pointing to a recession—such as the rise in the unemployment rate triggering the Sahm Rule, the decline in the U.S. savings rate, and the resolution of the dollar yield curve inversion—are becoming more apparent, the strong GDP figures indicate that we may be in a bull trap during a mid-downtrend rally. Therefore, it is expected that the decline will resume sooner or later.

長期的なドル円は、米金利下げは現状５％台から２％台へ戻り、円金利上げは０．２５％ずつ上げていくことにより最終的に１２０円台まで戻るシナリオであると予想される。そうなると、１６０円に及ぶ過剰な円安を享受してきた日本の輸出企業は利益が減少すると考えられる。その結果、日経平均はドル金利上げが始まった２０２２年４月時点の２万８千円ぐらいまで下落するだろう。In the long term, it is predicted that the USD/JPY will eventually return to the 120-yen range, as U.S. interest rates decrease from the current 5% range to around 2%, and Japanese interest rates gradually rise by 0.25% increments. If this happens, Japanese export companies, which have benefited from the excessive yen depreciation to around 160 yen, are likely to see a reduction in profits. As a result, the Nikkei average is expected to fall to around 28,000 yen, the level it was at in April 2022 when the U.S. interest rate hikes began.

ここ１ー２週間Next 1-2 Weeks:

ADRが更に５％下がっていること、米株のサームルール発動による下落、信用買いの追証決済売りで週前半は下げるが、日曜DAWが下げ止まっていることに加え、下落スピードが速すぎるためどこかで反発。しかし反発はネックラインで跳ね返されて反落し、日米株価は再下降。ADR is expected to drop another 5%, US stocks to fall due to the Sahm Rule, and margin call selling to drive down prices in the early part of the week. However, with the Dow showing signs of bottoming out on Sunday and the rapid decline in stock prices, a rebound is expected at some point. But this rebound will likely be short-lived as it hits the neckline and then retreats, causing US and Japanese stock prices to fall again.

８－１２月August-December:

パウエルの利下げと、植田の利上げ、NISAの解約による円レパトリ、円キャリー解消が円高を加速させ、日経平均をさらに下落させる。サームルール発動により、米株はさらに下落し、世界的に株安の局面。Powell’s rate cut, Ueda’s rate hike, repatriation of yen from NISA redemptions, and unwinding of yen carry trades will accelerate yen appreciation, further dragging down the Nikkei 225. The Sahm Rule will cause further declines in US stocks, leading to a global stock market downturn.

不確定要因Uncertainties:

米国債１０年ー２年金利の逆ザヤが解消されてから数カ月して景気後退に入ってきた歴史があるが、現状、逆ザヤはまだ解消されていない。このため、今回の米株下落は前振りで早晩反発し、本格的な米株調整は米利下げがある９月以降かもしれない。Historically, a few months after the inversion of the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yield curve resolves, an economic recession ensues. Currently, the inversion has not resolved. Therefore, the current drop in US stocks might be a precursor, with a substantial correction possibly occurring after the US rate cut in September.

トレードTrading:

月曜日の急落は１２００円にも達し、その後１４００円まで戻ったところを見ると買い時ではあったが、円高の仕掛けがあまりに急で、どこまで落ちるか分からなかったため二の足を踏んだ。結果、今回の反発はノーポジションのまま見送り。９月のパウエル利下げからくる米株急落と、同時に起こる円高再開に伴う、日本株下落の成り行きを見届ける。The sharp drop on Monday reached 1,200 yen, and although it rebounded to 1,400 yen, it seemed like a buying opportunity. However, the suddenness of the yen appreciation made it difficult to predict how far it might fall, leading to hesitation. As a result, I chose to stay on the sidelines and not take any positions during this rebound. I will observe the developments, including the potential sharp decline in U.S. stocks due to Powell’s rate cut in September and the simultaneous resumption of yen appreciation, to see how it impacts Japanese stocks.

MUFGは明らかに上昇トレンドから離脱している。MUFG showed outright deviation from uprising trend.

ドル円は短期上昇トレンドから大きく外れ、中期の上昇トレンドの下限抵抗線を試そうとしている。USD/JPY also showed major deviation from short term uprising trend. For longer term upward trend, it looks it is going to challenge the resistance as well.

選挙戦から降りたバイデンの後継にはハリスが指名され、民主党大会で承認される模様。対トランプ支持率は６０対４０まで回復したが、２０％差を１１月５日までに埋められるか。Harris has been nominated as Biden's successor after he withdrew from the election race and is expected to be approved at the Democratic National Convention. Although support against Trump has recovered to 60-40, can the 20% gap be closed by November 5th?

メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体も急落。

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCを受けて急激に下落。円金利は日銀のQTの速度が遅いことから下落。現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。US interest rates fell sharply following the FOMC meeting. Japanese interest rates also declined due to the slow pace of the Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening (QT). Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

外国人投資家が買い越し継続。売っているのは個人という良いパターン。Foreign investors continue to be net buyer. The only ones selling are individual investors, which is a good pattern.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は米CPI直後からの介入を受けて円高に振れたが、上昇トレンドを崩すまでは行わなかった。財務省もヘッジファンドではないということだろう。The yen strengthened against the dollar following intervention shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI, but it did not break the upward trend. It seems the Ministry of Finance is not acting like a hedge fund.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく反発した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant rebound.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.