AI 株価予測 20230929の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230929 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20230929の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230929　8306MUFG

上昇トレンドが再開したら買うつもりでいたため、先週ポジションをカットしたあと、1360円に逆指値成り行き買いを予約した。I had planned to buy when the upward trend resumed, so after cutting my position last week, I placed a limit order to buy at 1360 yen.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/3。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.　0/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

しかし、配当権利落ち日２８日を境に、株価は配当20.5円以上に下落していった。MUFGは25日移動平均線にはまだ到達しないが、他のメガバンクでは到達したものもある。メガバンクが他のバリュー株と同様、一様に売られている。However, since the ex-dividend date on the 28th, the stock price has declined to 20.5 yen or more below the dividend. While MUFG has not yet reached the 25-day moving average, some other mega-banks have. Mega-banks, like other value stocks, are being sold off uniformly.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end. 

投資主体別統計は外国人売り継続。４月からの外国人爆買いは爆売りに変わりつつある。バリュー株は一旦撤退が良いかもしれない。Investor-specific statistics continue to show selling by foreigners. The foreign buying frenzy that began in April seems to be turning into a selling frenzy. It might be a good idea to consider temporarily withdrawing from value stocks.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend. 

新値は日足は下落、週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足は下落、週足、月足とも上昇。The stock is currently showing a daily decline in price while experiencing upward trends on the weekly and monthly charts. AI predictions suggest a daily decline but upward trends on both the weekly and monthly charts.

三菱商事は配当落ち後、急落。Mitsubishi Corp. experienced a sharp drop after the ex-dividend date.

長谷工も配当落ち後、急落。Haseko Corporation also saw a sharp decline after the ex-dividend date.

ウクライナは支援の条件として腐敗を防止するように要求された。腐敗度はロシアと同等のレベル。腐敗が治らないと、支援も無駄になるという訳だ。米大統領選の行方を想定してなのか、支援の足並みも若干乱れてきているのが心配。領土奪還はゆっくりだが進んでいるようだ。Ukraine has been asked to prevent corruption as a condition for receiving support, and its level of corruption is reported to be on par with that of Russia. The concern is that if corruption is not addressed, the support provided may go to waste. There is also some worry that the unity of support for Ukraine might be slightly disrupted, possibly in anticipation of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. While the process of regaining territory may be progressing slowly, it appears to be moving forward.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

PPIが若干昂進したが、米金利は反応せず、パウエルは利上げしないという見方が大勢だ。spite a slight increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. interest rates have not reacted, and the prevailing view is that Powell is not inclined to raise rates.

YCC上限を1.0にしたにも関わらず、JGB10Yは0.72で日銀が介入している模様。日銀の中のアベノミクス緩和守旧派がいまだ影響力を行使しているようだ。Despite setting the Yield Curve Control (YCC) upper limit at 1.0, it appears that the JGB10Y yield is at 0.72, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) looks intervening. This suggests that there are still influential members within the BOJ who adhere to the old Abenomics policy of monetary easing.

3LB Month/Week/Day

日足のみが陰転した。Only the daily chart has turned bearish.

[今回予測20230929］Forecast at this time

更なる3LB更新を予測している。AI is predicting further 3LB updates.

[前回予測20230922］Previous Forecast 

前回３LB日足予測（下図）が殆ど完全に当たってしまったがまぐれだろう。Last time, the 3LB daily chart prediction (see the chart below) was almost entirely accurate, but it might have been a stroke of luck.

Midterm Range

急上昇レンジからは逸脱した。中期上昇レンジをどこまで下落するかが焦点。中期上層レンジ下限に達したら購入予定。It has deviated from the rapid upward range. The focus now is how far it will drop within the medium-term upward range. I plan to make a purchase when it reaches the lower limit of the medium-term upper range.

NHKの連ドラ「らんまん」 NHK's TV drama series RANMAN

NHKの連ドラ「らんまん」

NHK's TV drama series RANMAN

NHKの連ドラ「らんまん」のファンになってしまった。もうそろそろ終わりそうなのが残念。I've become a fan of NHK's serial drama "Ranman." It's a bit disappointing that it seems to be coming to an end soon.

夫の業績もすごいが、それ支える寿恵子の活躍はすばらしい。幕末、峰屋、上京、長屋、大学、寿恵子、山桃、大震災、大泉と、舞台はめぐる。女性の目から見ると、夫に尽くすだけの人生など真っ平ごめんと考える人も多いだろうが。While the husband's achievements are impressive, the dedication and achievements of Sueko who supports him, are remarkable. The story unfolds through various stages, including the Bakumatsu period, the Mineya shop, moving to Tokyo, living in a tenement, going to university, Sueko, Yamamomo, the Great Kanto Earthquake, and Oizumi. Some may think it's a life solely devoted to her husband from a female perspective, but...

役者がこれまた素晴らしい演技で、本当に現在進行形で動いているかのようで、最終回近くの回顧シーンになって、これで終わってしまうのか？とガッカリした。が、また昔の時代に戻って話が続き安心した。The actors also deliver outstanding performances, making it feel like the story is happening in real-time. As the show approaches its final episodes and transitions into retrospection scenes, I couldn't help but feel disappointed that it was coming to an end. However, it was reassuring to see the story return to the past, allowing it to continue.

当初、何に感動したのか自分でもわからなかったが、すべての登場人物が全て前向きに夢を持って切磋琢磨しながら、人生を生きていることが感動の根源だ。脚本時点での脚色は多少あるだろうが、全体としてフィクションでなく、史実、事実であるという事が大切だと思う。ただ、冷静に考えると、NHKの朝ドラなので、前向きな話の脚本が多くなることも大きい。Initially, I wasn't sure what had touched me so deeply, but the source of my emotions is the fact that all the characters are living their lives with dreams, striving forward, and supporting each other. While there may be some fictional elements in the screenplay, it's essential to maintain the overall sense of historical accuracy and truth. However, considering that it's an NHK morning drama, it's no surprise that the script tends to focus on positive aspects.

でも、これほどダイナミックな人生でありながら、過去であり、当時の関係者も全て亡くなっている。自分の人生も、現在進行形で毎日毎日が過ぎていくが、これも後世から見るとすべて閉じられた本の１ページになってしまう。万太郎が寿恵子に如何に恩返しをしようと思っても、もう恩返しをする自分さえ消えてなくなっている訳だ。Yet, despite the dynamic lives portrayed, the past and all those involved in that time are now gone. My own life is also moving forward day by day in real-time, but from the perspective of future generations, it will all become a closed page in a book. Even if Mantaro wants to repay Sueko he himself has already disappeared.

振り返ってみると、父を支えた、港町で生まれた今は亡き母も、商家での幼少期、戦争、津波、上京、大学、結婚、子育て、仕事、文化活動、旅行、音楽、大学再入学と、何時でも前向きに駆け抜けた人生を送った。NHKのドラマのように再現すれば、母を主人公として、それは生き生きとした前向きな日常が甦るだろう。でも今となっては結晶に閉じ込められた記憶、記録であり、変えることは出来ない。Looking back, my mother, who supported my father, was born in a coastal town, and she experienced childhood in a merchant family, the war, a tsunami, moving to Tokyo, university, marriage, raising children, work, cultural activities, travel, music, and returning to university. If it were recreated like an NHK drama, her lively and positive daily life would come back to life. But now, it's memories and records trapped in time, unchangeable.

唯一変えることが出来るドラマは、今この瞬間を生きている自分自身だ。自分を支えてくれている人、支えてくれてくれた人はだれだろう？でも、永遠に続くドラマはない。自分は何を成し遂げたいのか？常に、自問自答する価値のある質問だ。The only drama that can be changed is the one I am living right now. Who are the people supporting me, or who have supported me? However, there is no drama that lasts forever. What do I want to accomplish? It's a question worth constantly asking oneself.

AI 株価予測 20230922の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230922 8306MUFG

  AI 株価予測 20230922の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230922　8306MUFG

先週末の日銀からの植田発言の修正ニュースによる下落は火曜日に戻してきたため売却。ポジションはゼロとした。I sold my positions due to the correction news regarding the statement from the Bank of Japan's Ueda over the weekend, which had caused a decline. The market rebounded on Tuesday, so I decided to liquidate my holdings. My position is now zero.

トレード詳細はこちら。　 Trade detail is here.

その後、木曜日、米FOMCは現状維持。金曜日は、日本インフレ率３．４％で変わらず、日銀金利決定会合でも現状維持。金利が上昇しなかったにもかかわらず、銀行株は上昇した。緩和が近く終了すると見たTOPIXの先物売りが緩和長期化の方向を受けて買い戻された流れに乗った可能性もあり、これで銀行株の調整が完了したかどうかは不明。On Thursday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the status quo. On Friday, Japan's inflation rate remained at 3.4%, unchanged, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision also remained the same. Despite the lack of interest rate hikes, bank stocks saw an increase. There is a possibility that this could be due to a resurgence in buying from TOPIX futures, driven by the perception that monetary easing may continue for an extended period, even though interest rates didn't rise. It remains uncertain whether the adjustment in bank stocks has been completed.

普通に考えると２２日の動きは奇妙だった。２２日は利上げ無しなら、下がるはず。In normal circumstances, the movement on the 22nd day seemed strange. If there was no rate hike on the 22nd, it was expected to drop.

・植田の読売インタビューで早期利上げを匂わせられ、メガ急騰(9/10)In an interview with Yomiuri, Ueda hinted at an early rate hike, leading to a mega surge on September 10th.
・週末日銀関係者に否定され、メガ急落(9/15)Denied by BOJ officials over the weekend, resulting in a mega drop on September 15th.


・金利決定会合で、早期利上げ「なし」と決定、メガ急騰（9/22)At the interest rate decision meeting, it was decided "no" to an early rate hike, leading to a mega surge on September 22nd.


これは、円高阻止には介入では無理なので植田は利上げに追い込まれたと読んだヘッジファンドがTOPIX先物売りポジションを膨らませていたところ、早期利上げ無しとなったので、一気に巻き戻し、メガも巻き戻されたのでは無いか。It appears that a hedge fund, reading that intervention would not achieve preventing yen appreciation and that Ueda was being pressured into a rate hike, had inflated its TOPIX futures short position. However, with the decision of no early rate hike, they quickly unwound their position, which might have caused the mega reversal as well.


２２日の日中チャートはTOPIXと酷似している。The intraday chart on the 22nd closely resembles that of TOPIX.

引き続き、天井形成レンジの上限を抜けて力強く上昇を再開した場合のみ、購入予定。I plan to consider buying only if there is a strong upward move beyond the upper limit of the consolidation range, continuing to monitor the market for such opportunities.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end. 

投資主体別統計は外国人売り継続。The investment data by investor type continues to show foreign investors selling.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/3。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.　0/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。3LB is up for all day/week/month. AI forecast is up for all as well.

三菱商事は行ってこい。Mitsubishi went up, then down.

長谷工も行ってこい。Haseko did as well.

ウクライナはゼレンスキーが国連に出席、支援の継続の必要性を訴えた。武力で大国が自由に小国を攻め滅ぼす時代に逆戻りすると、中国は台湾を奪取し、日本は防衛を本格的に整備する必要が出てくる。国連としては、ウクライナが勝利し、地球を戦国時代に逆行させないことが重要だ。ゼレンスキーはまた、いまだに拒否権を持つ常任理事国が第二次世界大戦の戦勝国だけから成り立つ矛盾を批判し修正を求めた。ウクライナはその後、射程300kmを超える長距離ミサイルを米から供与されることになった。Ukraine, represented by President Zelensky, attended the United Nations and emphasized the need for continued support. In an era where major powers can freely attack and conquer smaller nations through force, there is a risk of regressing. China's potential seizure of Taiwan and Japan's need to significantly bolster its defense capabilities become apparent. For the United Nations, it is crucial that Ukraine achieves victory and prevents the world from reverting to an era of warring states.

Zelensky also criticized the contradiction where the veto power in the United Nations Security Council is still held exclusively by the victorious nations of World War II and called for reforms. Subsequently, Ukraine was granted long-range missiles with a range exceeding 300 kilometers from the United States.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY  US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

PPIが若干昂進したが、米金利は反応せず、パウエルは利上げしないという見方が大勢だ。spite a slight increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. interest rates have not reacted, and the prevailing view is that Powell is not inclined to raise rates.

YCC上限を1.0にしたにも関わらず、JGB10Yは0.72で日銀が介入している模様。日銀の中のアベノミクス緩和守旧派がいまだ影響力を行使しているようだ。Despite setting the Yield Curve Control (YCC) upper limit at 1.0, it appears that the JGB10Y yield is at 0.72, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) looks intervening. This suggests that there are still influential members within the BOJ who adhere to the old Abenomics policy of monetary easing.

3LB Month/Week/Day

[今回予測20230922］Forecast at this time

[前回予測20230915］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

一応レンジに収まっている。買い出動は最低でもレンジ下限、８００近辺にならないと考えられない。Still within the range. Reaching lower range of 800 level is the minimal condition to make another purchase.