AI 株価予測 20230922の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230922　8306MUFG

先週末の日銀からの植田発言の修正ニュースによる下落は火曜日に戻してきたため売却。ポジションはゼロとした。I sold my positions due to the correction news regarding the statement from the Bank of Japan's Ueda over the weekend, which had caused a decline. The market rebounded on Tuesday, so I decided to liquidate my holdings. My position is now zero.

トレード詳細はこちら。　 Trade detail is here.

その後、木曜日、米FOMCは現状維持。金曜日は、日本インフレ率３．４％で変わらず、日銀金利決定会合でも現状維持。金利が上昇しなかったにもかかわらず、銀行株は上昇した。緩和が近く終了すると見たTOPIXの先物売りが緩和長期化の方向を受けて買い戻された流れに乗った可能性もあり、これで銀行株の調整が完了したかどうかは不明。On Thursday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the status quo. On Friday, Japan's inflation rate remained at 3.4%, unchanged, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision also remained the same. Despite the lack of interest rate hikes, bank stocks saw an increase. There is a possibility that this could be due to a resurgence in buying from TOPIX futures, driven by the perception that monetary easing may continue for an extended period, even though interest rates didn't rise. It remains uncertain whether the adjustment in bank stocks has been completed.

普通に考えると２２日の動きは奇妙だった。２２日は利上げ無しなら、下がるはず。In normal circumstances, the movement on the 22nd day seemed strange. If there was no rate hike on the 22nd, it was expected to drop.

・植田の読売インタビューで早期利上げを匂わせられ、メガ急騰(9/10)In an interview with Yomiuri, Ueda hinted at an early rate hike, leading to a mega surge on September 10th.
・週末日銀関係者に否定され、メガ急落(9/15)Denied by BOJ officials over the weekend, resulting in a mega drop on September 15th.

・金利決定会合で、早期利上げ「なし」と決定、メガ急騰（9/22)At the interest rate decision meeting, it was decided "no" to an early rate hike, leading to a mega surge on September 22nd.

これは、円高阻止には介入では無理なので植田は利上げに追い込まれたと読んだヘッジファンドがTOPIX先物売りポジションを膨らませていたところ、早期利上げ無しとなったので、一気に巻き戻し、メガも巻き戻されたのでは無いか。It appears that a hedge fund, reading that intervention would not achieve preventing yen appreciation and that Ueda was being pressured into a rate hike, had inflated its TOPIX futures short position. However, with the decision of no early rate hike, they quickly unwound their position, which might have caused the mega reversal as well.

２２日の日中チャートはTOPIXと酷似している。The intraday chart on the 22nd closely resembles that of TOPIX.

引き続き、天井形成レンジの上限を抜けて力強く上昇を再開した場合のみ、購入予定。I plan to consider buying only if there is a strong upward move beyond the upper limit of the consolidation range, continuing to monitor the market for such opportunities.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

投資主体別統計は外国人売り継続。The investment data by investor type continues to show foreign investors selling.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/3。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.　0/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。3LB is up for all day/week/month. AI forecast is up for all as well.

三菱商事は行ってこい。Mitsubishi went up, then down.

長谷工も行ってこい。Haseko did as well.

ウクライナはゼレンスキーが国連に出席、支援の継続の必要性を訴えた。武力で大国が自由に小国を攻め滅ぼす時代に逆戻りすると、中国は台湾を奪取し、日本は防衛を本格的に整備する必要が出てくる。国連としては、ウクライナが勝利し、地球を戦国時代に逆行させないことが重要だ。ゼレンスキーはまた、いまだに拒否権を持つ常任理事国が第二次世界大戦の戦勝国だけから成り立つ矛盾を批判し修正を求めた。ウクライナはその後、射程300kmを超える長距離ミサイルを米から供与されることになった。Ukraine, represented by President Zelensky, attended the United Nations and emphasized the need for continued support. In an era where major powers can freely attack and conquer smaller nations through force, there is a risk of regressing. China's potential seizure of Taiwan and Japan's need to significantly bolster its defense capabilities become apparent. For the United Nations, it is crucial that Ukraine achieves victory and prevents the world from reverting to an era of warring states.

Zelensky also criticized the contradiction where the veto power in the United Nations Security Council is still held exclusively by the victorious nations of World War II and called for reforms. Subsequently, Ukraine was granted long-range missiles with a range exceeding 300 kilometers from the United States.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

PPIが若干昂進したが、米金利は反応せず、パウエルは利上げしないという見方が大勢だ。spite a slight increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. interest rates have not reacted, and the prevailing view is that Powell is not inclined to raise rates.

YCC上限を1.0にしたにも関わらず、JGB10Yは0.72で日銀が介入している模様。日銀の中のアベノミクス緩和守旧派がいまだ影響力を行使しているようだ。Despite setting the Yield Curve Control (YCC) upper limit at 1.0, it appears that the JGB10Y yield is at 0.72, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) looks intervening. This suggests that there are still influential members within the BOJ who adhere to the old Abenomics policy of monetary easing.