Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230908　8306MUFG

今週は、MSQが８日金曜日であることから、木曜日に全量売却した。トレード詳細はこちら。　Sold all holding positions on Thursday since MSQ falls on this 8th, Friday. Trade detail is here.

上昇トレンドは未だ崩れていないと考えられ、今週の売却分は２５日線までの下落後に再購入する予定。Upward trend still looks intact. Hence sold positions will be repurchased once price went down to 25-day average.

MSQの後に日経２２５は毎回崩れているが、MUFGは今年３月を除いて、過去１年崩れていない。来週は、指数は崩れるものの、MUFGについてはさほど影響を受けない可能性もある。After MSQ, the Nikkei 225 has consistently declined, but MUFG has not experienced a decline in the past year except for March this year. Next week, while the index may experience a downturn, MUFG may not be significantly affected.

日銀植田が、インフレが確認されれば緩和は停止するとインタビューで答えており、今月２２日のインフレ率発表と金利決定会合が注目だ。In an interview, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that if inflation is confirmed, easing will be halted, making the inflation rate announcement on the 22nd of this month and the interest rate decision meeting crucial points of interest.

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

米失業率は予想より悪化し、パウエルが利上げを緩める観測につながり米株下落トレンドの緩和材料となった。来週１３日の米インフレ率、２１日の米金利決定、２２日の日本インフレ及び金利決定はMUFGの株価を大きく作用する。The US unemployment rate worsened more than expected, leading to speculation that Powell may ease interest rates, which acted as a mitigating factor for the downward trend in US stocks. The US inflation rate on the 13th and the US interest rate decision on the 21st, as well as Japan's inflation and interest rate decision on the 22nd, will have a significant impact on MUFG's stock price next week.

投資主体別統計は外国人買い復活。Investor statistics shows resumption of purchase by foreign investors.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は0/3。長期枠利用は0/3。Trade details are here.

0/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 0/3.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。3LB is up for all day/week/month. AI forecast is up for all as well.

三菱商事は上昇後MSQで調整。Mitsubishi went up then went down on MSQ.

長谷工も上昇後、MSQで調整。Haseko went up as well. It also went down later on MSQ.

イーロンマスクはスターリンクをウクライナに利用させるのを停止した模様だ。ロシアが侵略したウクライナの領土をロシアの領土と認識しているようだ。目を奪われたウクライナの今後が懸念される。It appears that Elon Musk has suspended the use of Starlink in Ukraine. It seems that he recognizes the territory invaded by Russia as Russian territory. The future of Ukraine, which has captured the world's attention, is a cause for concern.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

雇用統計が失業者増となったことから、パウエルは利上げをしないとの見方が支配的となった。今までの利上げが着実に効きはじめたかもしれない。Due to the increase in unemployment in the employment statistics, it has become the dominant view that Powell will not raise interest rates. It is possible that the previous rate hikes are beginning to have a steady impact.