AI 株価予測 20230915の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230915　8306MUFG

MSQを受けて当初下落すると思っていたが、先週日曜日の植田発言を受けて、SQ後のメガバンクは月曜日市場が開くとともに再度急騰したため即座にリミットいっぱいに購入した。I initially thought that the stock price would decline after receiving the MSQ, but following Ueda's statement last Sunday, mega banks surged once again as the market opened on Monday after the SQ, so I immediately purchased them to the maximum limit.

その後、メガバンクは金曜日の午前中まで上げ続けたが、金曜日の２PMに日銀関係者から植田発言はマーケットに曲解されているという記事が出たのを機に一気に暴落しため、ロスカット。その後持ち直したので再度購入した。Subsequently, mega banks continued to rise until Friday morning. However, at 2 PM on Friday, an article quoting Bank of Japan officials stating that Ueda's remarks were being misinterpreted by the market was released. This caused a sudden and sharp crash, leading to my manual stop loss. Afterward, the prices stabilized, so I bought them again.

トレード詳細はこちら。　 Trade detail is here.

現在利上げが株価のドライバーとなっているが、利上げ直後の金利の収益への寄与効果はMUFGのIRに示されているように非常に限定的。利上げによる保有債券価格の下落による損失も大きい。Currently, interest rate hikes are driving stock prices, but the contribution of interest rate increases to earnings, as indicated by MUFG's IR, is very limited. There are also significant losses due to the decline in bond prices caused by interest rate hikes.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクがことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega banks is more characterized by the uplift of value stocks rather than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega banks have uniformly risen, and not just mega banks but also sectors like construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued and overlooked, have experienced significant surges. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, much like what happened with mega banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

メガバンクの今後についてはバリューとして上げ続けることも考えられるが、このレベルで一旦調整が入るだろう。今週２１－２２日の日本インフレ率発表、および、日銀金利決定会合では、植田はYCC修正などの実質利上げは見送る可能性が高い。Regarding the future of mega banks, it's possible that they may continue to rise as value stocks, but a correction is likely at this level. In the upcoming week, with the release of Japan's inflation rate data on the 21st and 22nd, as well as the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision meeting, there is a high possibility that Ueda may postpone any substantial interest rate hikes, including YCC adjustments.

３連休明けの火曜日、株価が急騰すればそのまま放置。急落すれば損切で対応する予定。On the Tuesday following the 3-day weekend, if stock prices surge, you plan to leave them as they are. If there's a sudden drop, you intend to respond with stop-loss measures.

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

投資主体別統計は外国人売り。ただ、今週は強烈な買いが続いており、次のレポートでは外国人買いとなるだろう。The investment breakdown statistics currently show selling by foreign investors. However, if strong buying continues this week, it's likely that the next report will indicate foreign buying.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.　3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。3LB is up for all day/week/month. AI forecast is up for all as well.

三菱商事は再度上昇開始。Mitsubishi trading resumed rising.

長谷工も再度上昇開始。Haseko resumed rising as well.

ウクライナはロシアに不法占拠された重要拠点を確実に奪還してきているようだ。ただ、占拠された領域は広く、全域の奪還には時間がかかりそうで、時間的制約が懸念される。時間的制約とは、米国の支援は来年１１月の大統領選挙で途絶えるリスクがあるからだ。米国の支援が途絶えた段階でウクライナの領土奪還は不可能になる。ゼレンスキーは近く訪米し民主党、共和党の要人と面談するのも、そのリスクを解消するのが目的だ。It appears that Ukraine is steadily reclaiming important territories unlawfully occupied by Russia. However, due to the vast expanse of the occupied areas, the complete recovery may take time, and there are concerns about time constraints. The time constraint arises from the risk that U.S. support may be discontinued after the presidential elections in November next year. If U.S. support were to cease, the reclamation of Ukrainian territory could become impossible. Zelensky's upcoming visit to the United States and his meetings with key figures from both the Democratic and Republican parties aim to mitigate this risk.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

PPIが若干昂進したが、米金利は反応せず、パウエルは利上げしないという見方が大勢だ。spite a slight increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. interest rates have not reacted, and the prevailing view is that Powell is not inclined to raise rates.

YCC上限を1.0にしたにも関わらず、JGB10Yは0.72で日銀が介入している模様。日銀の中のアベノミクス緩和守旧派がいまだ影響力を行使しているようだ。Despite setting the Yield Curve Control (YCC) upper limit at 1.0, it appears that the JGB10Y yield is at 0.72, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) looks intervening. This suggests that there are still influential members within the BOJ who adhere to the old Abenomics policy of monetary easing.