Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230901　8306MUFG

今週は、月末のお化粧で上がった後、９月入りした金曜日、更に大幅上昇した。MUFGの株価はメガバンクやTOPIXと連動し、上昇は個別銘柄要因ではない。月末配当日に向け更に上昇するのか、何時ものように配当日の前週にピークをつけるのか。This week, after a rise in the stock market at the end of the month, Friday marked the beginning of September, and there was a significant further increase. The stock price of MUFG is closely linked to the mega-banks and TOPIX, and the rise is not due to individual stock-specific factors. Will it continue to rise further towards the end-of-month dividend day, or will it peak in the week before the dividend day as usual?

基本スタンスはホールドで、５００円台に落ちてきたところで買い増し。Main strategy is hold while additional buy only when it goes down to 500 Yen level.

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The biggest worry of US stock is the crash of US commercial real estate due to remote work, that is not really considered in the market still.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。Underlying impact is coming also from crash of Chinese real estate market. The shrinkage of China money will accelerate the further crash of commercial real estate market globally.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。９月末の配当を待たずして起こる可能性もある。The world wide stock market crash stemming from US market crash will happen in few months. It can happen before the dividend day in Sep end.

投資主体別統計は外国人売り継続。Investor statistics shows continuation of sell by foreign investors.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE is on recovery trend while USDJPY got intervention.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT looks in halt while money stock is on down trend.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.

3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値は日足・週足・月足とも上昇。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。3LB is up for all day/week/month. AI forecast is up for all as well.

三菱商事はバフェットが投資を継続するかが全て。Mitsubishi trading all depends on the Buffet's investment stance.

長谷工は新値的には買いのタイミング。Haseko is buy timing from 3LB perspective.

各国が反転攻勢の遅さを指摘する中、ウクライナは着実に領土奪還を継続。ただ、今の速度だと、戦争は今年中にはおわらないだろう。Amid criticisms from various countries about the slow pace of counteroffensives, Ukraine continues to steadily reclaim its territory. However, at the current rate, it is unlikely that the war will end within this year.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

NKYもSPXも暴落目前ムード満載のチャート。だが、現状ではまだ、米商業用不動産破綻、中国経済破綻から来る経済不安をベースとした大暴落には少し早すぎるだろう。それは、まだ米国ドルのイールドカーブの１０Ｙ－２Ｙが未だマイナスだからだ。暴落はこれがプラ転してから始まるのが常だ。NKY as well as SPX chart is telling that crash is imminent. However it will be a little bit early to be a real crash that originates from US commercial real estate crash as well as China economic crash. It is because US 10Y-2Y yield is still negative. Real crash normally comes after 10Y-2Y comes back to positive number.

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

雇用統計が失業者増となったことから、パウエルは利上げをしないとの見方が支配的となった。今までの利上げが着実に効きはじめたかもしれない。Due to the increase in unemployment in the employment statistics, it has become the dominant view that Powell will not raise interest rates. It is possible that the previous rate hikes are beginning to have a steady impact.