AI 株価予測 20240628の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240628

果たして先週は異常な上昇を遂げた週となった。1650までの上昇を見てさらなる上昇の可能性も考えて追加で1/10を買ったが、その後更に上昇を続け、１週間で150円を越える上昇となった。現状のポジションは4/10。Indeed, last week saw an extraordinary rise. After observing the rise to 1650 and considering the possibility of further increase, I bought an additional 1/10. Subsequently, the rise continued, exceeding 150 yen in just one week. The current position is 4/10.

当初、黄色線で何回か抵抗した際、何時か下抜けすると考えたため1/10のみ購入。ところが、反発し、空色線で上昇するかと思いきや、一つ上のオレンジ色の上昇チャネルに到達。そこは6/4のザラ場高値で、これを終値ベースで超過して実体のローソク足で引けた。Initially, I purchased only 1/10 when it resisted several times at the yellow line, thinking it would eventually break below. However, it rebounded, and while I thought it would rise at the light blue line, it reached the orange upward channel above. That was the intraday high on June 4th, and it closed with a solid candlestick that exceeded this on a closing price basis.

週足ベースでは、包み大陽線で、強い上昇トレンドを示している。On a weekly basis, it shows a strong upward trend with a large engulfing bullish candlestick.

日銀は７月３１日の金利決定会合で今後のQTのスケジュールを発表する。利下げも視野に入れるとの発言もあった。レンジ抵抗線での反発はそれを考慮しての物とも考えられる。利上げ＝メガバンク上昇のストーリーは健在というわけか。The Bank of Japan will announce the schedule for future QT at its interest rate decision meeting on July 31. There was also a statement that a rate cut is being considered. The rebound at the range resistance line could be seen in light of this. The story of rate hikes = mega bank rises remains intact.

AI株予測は月足以外は上昇。月足の下落予想はかなり不気味。The AI stock prediction indicates a rise except on the monthly chart. The monthly chart's decline prediction is quite ominous.

フィボナッチでは1850-1950程度が次の節目になりそう。According to Fibonacci, the next milestone appears to be around 1850-1950.

週足ベースのフィボナッチでは、ターゲットは1940近辺。緑の線で週足ベースでも包み大陽線となっていることが分かる。On a weekly Fibonacci basis, the target is around 1940. It is evident that there is a large engulfing bullish candlestick even on a weekly basis, as indicated by the green line.

日本株は４万円に向けて戻り始めている感じはある。There seems to be a sense that Japanese stocks are beginning to rebound towards 40,000 yen.

メガバンク各社は上昇トレンド継続。Mega banks continued rising.

新値日足は全て上昇。AI予測は日足、週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily highs are all rising. The AI prediction shows an increase in daily and weekly charts, while the monthly chart is predicted to decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今月のハイライトは、日銀の金利決定会合。今後のQTのスケジュールが発表される。

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCの慎重姿勢を反映して下落停止、日本の金利は植田の国会コメントを反映して上昇基調。

外国人投資家の売り越しは継続した。Net selling by foreign investors continued.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高であったが、米金利の低下により円高に反転。その後また利上げ長期化を想定して円安になっている。Since the recent 10 trillion yen intervention, the USD/JPY gradually rose, aiming for 160 yen. However, it reversed to yen appreciation due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Subsequently, the yen weakened again, anticipating prolonged rate hikes.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はハイテク主導で戻ってきたが、ここにきて伸びがハイテクからハイテク以外に移りつつある。US stocks have returned, led by high-tech, but recently the growth seems to be shifting from high-tech to non-high-tech sectors.

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.