AI 株価予測 20240531の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240531

NVIDIAは不思議な下落を続け、ダウ、SPX、NASともに下落。週末のPCEを無事通過すると、指数は急激な回復を見せた。すべては金曜日の後場に起こった。米景気後退や商業用不動産暴落由来の地銀連続破綻などは、まったく顧みられず、株は更に上昇を続ける勢い。NVIDIA continued its mysterious decline, with the Dow, SPX, and NAS all falling as well. After safely passing the weekend's PCE, the indices showed a sharp recovery. All of this happened in the second half of Friday's trading. Concerns about a U.S. economic recession or consecutive regional bank failures due to a commercial real estate crash were completely ignored, and the momentum for stock prices to rise further continued.

日経平均はそのダウの動きを事前に予想したように、金曜日急激に回復。MUFGも年初来高値を更新する直前となった。The Nikkei 225 anticipated the Dow's movements, showing a sharp recovery on Friday. MUFG was on the verge of hitting a new year-to-date high.

NYの暴走についていく展開となる。先週は１６５０で一旦利確と言ったが、年初来高値を更新してきたので、リミットの１／５のポジションは、このままホールド。Following the surge in NY, the trend will continue. Last week, I mentioned taking profits at 1650, but with the stock reaching a new year-to-date high, I will hold on to 1/5 of my position at the current limit.

メガバンク各社は続伸した。Mega banks went up continuously.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are falling. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on weekly, and monthly charts but falling for daily.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は　２／５。長期枠利用は０／５。Trading details are as follows: 1/5 trading limit utilization for short-term trades and 0/5 for long-term holdings.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利は緩やかなインフレの低下に伴い利下げを期待した低下となっている。一方、日本の金利は日銀のインフレ定着認識のアナウンスとともに上昇基調となっている。

外国人投資家はついに売り越しに回った。Foreign investors became net sellers of physical stocks..

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高。イエレンはけん制しているが、財務省は１６０円を越えてくれば再度介入すると考えられ、市場も仕掛けずらい状況と思われる。

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドから一時離脱したが、また戻りそうだ。Haseko momentarily departed from its downtrend but seems to be returning.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.