AI 株価予測 20240614の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240614

果たして米CPIは低下、FOMCは据え置きとなった。CPIは低下傾向にあるものの、数カ月のデータをもとに利下げを決定したいようだ。ドットチャートは年内２回の利下げに戻った。結果ハイテクは上昇再開する一方、ダウは低迷。Indeed, the US CPI has declined, and the FOMC has maintained its stance. Although the CPI is on a downward trend, they seem to want to decide on a rate cut based on several months of data. The dot plot has returned to indicate two rate cuts within the year. As a result, while tech stocks have resumed their rise, the Dow remains sluggish.

日本株は３９０００円を破れず、停滞。銀行株は利上げ無回答への懸念から下落。MUFGはファイアーウオールおよび公正競争違反への行政指導を懸念してさらに下落。金曜日の日銀金利決定会合は７月会合での今後のQT計画発表を約束。これで、７月からの１０年債金利上昇はようやく確約されたようだ。しかし、その規模、金利への影響、変化の速度については全く不明。Japanese stocks have stagnated, failing to break the 39,000 yen mark. Bank stocks have fallen due to concerns over the lack of response regarding rate hikes. MUFG has declined further due to administrative guidance concerns related to firewall and fair competition violations. Friday’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision meeting promised the announcement of future QT plans at the July meeting. With this, the rise in 10-year bond yields from July seems to be finally assured. However, the scale, impact on interest rates, and the pace of change remain completely unknown.

銀行株は一様に短期上昇トレンドから離脱、短期下降トレンド入り。１５００に達するまでいくつかの抵抗線がある。どこかで反転して再度上昇トレンドに復帰するものと思われる。現状２／１０投入しているため、下落した場合、これらの抵抗線でさらに１／１０を投入し、３／１０とする予定。チャートはレンジの中のネックラインを一旦のレジスタンスとしている形。ここで反発した場合は、次の上昇ラインを見極める。とりあえず、下降レンジからの脱却が必要。Bank stocks have uniformly exited their short-term upward trend and entered a short-term downward trend. There are several resistance lines until it reaches 1,500. It is expected that somewhere along these lines, the trend will reverse and return to an upward trend. Currently, with 2/10 invested, in case of a decline, another 1/10 will be invested at these resistance lines, bringing it to 3/10. The chart currently shows the neckline within the range as a temporary resistance. If it rebounds here, the next upward line will be determined. For now, escaping from the downward range is necessary.

なお、上昇基調に戻った場合、フィボナッチから１９００程度までは上昇すると思われる。If the upward trend resumes, it is expected to rise to around 1900 based on the Fibonacci retracement.

メガバンク各社は月曜日の根拠なき上昇の後下落。The major banks fell after an unfounded rise on Monday.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are falling. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on weekly, and monthly charts but falling for daily.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はインフレの鎮静化とともに金利は低下していたが、先週の雇用統計の大幅な改善を受けて急上昇。一方日本は日銀の利上げ観測が一段と弱まり金利低下。U.S. interest rates had been declining as inflation calmed, but they surged sharply following a significant improvement in last week's employment statistics. Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike has further weakened, leading to a drop in interest rates.

外国人投資家の売り越しは継続した。Net selling by foreign investors continued.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高であったが、米金利の低下により円高に反転。その後また利上げ長期化を想定して円安になっている。Since the recent 10 trillion yen intervention, the USD/JPY gradually rose, aiming for 160 yen. However, it reversed to yen appreciation due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Subsequently, the yen weakened again, anticipating prolonged rate hikes.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

下がりそうで下がらない展開が続く。パウエルは頑なにハッキリしたインフレ下落トレンドの確認までは利下げをしない。しかし、ハイテク株は果てしなく上昇していく。The trend of potential declines that never materialize continues. Powell is adamant about not cutting interest rates until a clear downward trend in inflation is confirmed. However, tech stocks keep rising relentlessly.

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.