AI 株価予測 20240621の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240621

先週は日経が下落する一方、米株は上昇した後調整した。米株はNVIDIAなどのM7の暴騰は一服している。Last week, while the Nikkei fell, U.S. stocks rose and then adjusted. The sharp rise in U.S. stocks, particularly the M7 like NVIDIA, has paused.

日本株は、外国人の買いが売りに転換している。植田は来月の日銀金利決定会合での利上げを匂わせる国会答弁を行っており、また、QTの国債購入減額はそれなりの大きさになるとも発言。ドル円は、米国の金利上昇を受けて160円近辺まで上昇。介入まで秒読みの段階に来ている。For Japanese stocks, foreign buying has turned into selling. Ueda hinted at a rate hike in next month's BOJ rate decision meeting during his testimony in the Diet, and also mentioned that the reduction in government bond purchases under QT would be of significant scale. The USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to near 160 yen due to rising U.S. interest rates, and intervention seems imminent.

米株は本格下落までにはもう少し時間がかかりそう。日本株は上昇継続とは思い難いチャート形状。MUFGも黄色の上昇トレンドを割れて、更に一段下の緑の抵抗ラインを見ても不思議ではない。For U.S. stocks, it seems there will be a bit more time before a significant decline. The chart patterns of Japanese stocks suggest it's hard to believe in continued rises. MUFG has broken below the yellow upward trend line, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it fall further to the green support line.

新値は５本を数え、AI予測でも一旦反発を予想している。3LB counted 5 and AI is expecting rebound for a moment.

下落する場合、１５００近辺、１３００近辺と、抵抗線に達する度に買い下がっていく方針。９月の米利下げの後、１１月大統領選の完了を待って米株は暴落を始める可能性が大きいので注意。１２００円台まで下落すると、現状３．２％の配当利回りは４．２％まで上昇する。In the event of a decline, the strategy is to buy in stages as the stock approaches the resistance lines around 1500 and 1300. There is a high possibility that U.S. stocks will start to crash after the Fed's rate cut in September and the completion of the presidential election in November, so caution is advised. If the price falls to the 1200 yen range, the current dividend yield of 3.2% will rise to 4.2%.

なお、上昇基調に戻った場合、フィボナッチから１９００程度までは上昇すると思われる。If the upward trend resumes, it is expected to rise to around 1900 based on the Fibonacci retracement.

メガバンク各社は下落トレンド継続。Mega banks continued dropping.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are falling. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on weekly, and monthly charts but falling for daily.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCの慎重姿勢を反映して下落停止、日本の金利は植田の国会コメントを反映して上昇基調。

外国人投資家の売り越しは継続した。Net selling by foreign investors continued.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高であったが、米金利の低下により円高に反転。その後また利上げ長期化を想定して円安になっている。Since the recent 10 trillion yen intervention, the USD/JPY gradually rose, aiming for 160 yen. However, it reversed to yen appreciation due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Subsequently, the yen weakened again, anticipating prolonged rate hikes.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

下がりそうで下がらない展開が続く。パウエルは頑なにハッキリしたインフレ下落トレンドの確認までは利下げをしない。しかし、ハイテク株は果てしなく上昇していく。The trend of potential declines that never materialize continues. Powell is adamant about not cutting interest rates until a clear downward trend in inflation is confirmed. However, tech stocks keep rising relentlessly.

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.