AI 株価予測 20240608の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240608

水曜日のISMを受けて上昇した米株は金曜日の強すぎる雇用統計により利下げ延期の懸念から微調整した。日本株は方向感定まらず下落基調。今週12日水曜日に米インフレ率、13日木曜日にFOMC、14日金曜日に日銀金利決定会合がある。After the rise in U.S. stocks on Wednesday due to the ISM report, they adjusted slightly on Friday due to concerns that the strong employment report might delay interest rate cuts. Japanese stocks, lacking clear direction, are on a downward trend. This week, the U.S. inflation rate will be announced on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting will be held on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision meeting will be on Friday.

日銀は長期金利を１０年債買い上げペースを平衡額の６兆円から減額することでQTを発動、長期金利の利上げを開始する可能性をほのめかしたが、その後火消しにまわるなど、方向感を欠く。結果、１０年債金利は下落、銀行株もアイランドを形成して下落している。The Bank of Japan has hinted at the possibility of initiating QT by reducing the purchase pace of 10-year bonds from the equilibrium amount of 6 trillion yen and starting to raise long-term interest rates, but later moved to quell these expectations, showing a lack of clear direction. As a result, the 10-year bond yield has fallen, and bank stocks have formed an island and are declining.

マイナスの地合いに加え、MUFGはファイアーウオールと公正競争違反で証券取引委員会から訴追され、今後金融庁の調査が入ることになったため、他のメガより更に下落。In addition to the negative market sentiment, MUFG faced further decline compared to other mega banks after being indicted by the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission for firewall and fair competition violations. Consequently, the Financial Services Agency will conduct an investigation.

ただ、短期上昇チャネルの下限をヒットしたため反発。そのタイミングでリミットの1/10を追加購入。現在合計リミットの2/10の保有となっている。抵抗線としては黄色、緑、青、赤がある。青と赤の抵抗線の確度が高いと思われる。However, since it hit the lower limit of the short-term rising channel, it has rebounded. At that timing, an additional purchase of 1/10 of the limit was made. Currently, the total holding is 2/10 of the limit. There are resistance lines at yellow, green, blue, and red levels. The blue and red resistance lines are considered to have higher accuracy.

更に来週はメジャーSQでもある。現状下向きのポジションが多いようだが、VIXは日米とも最低レベルにある。Furthermore, next week is the major SQ (Special Quotation) day. Although there currently seem to be many downward positions, the VIX is at its lowest level in both Japan and the United States.

なお、上昇基調に戻った場合、フィボナッチから１９００程度までは上昇すると思われる。If the upward trend resumes, it is expected to rise to around 1900 based on the Fibonacci retracement.

米株はインフレ率とFOMCで方向性が出てくるかもしれない。U.S. stocks might show a direction based on the inflation rate and the FOMC meeting.

メガバンク各社は月曜日の根拠なき上昇の後下落。The major banks fell after an unfounded rise on Monday.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足、週足、月足とも上昇。The new daily highs are falling. AI predictions indicate an upward trend on weekly, and monthly charts but falling for daily.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体は急落後、自律反発。Semiconductor stocks have experienced a self-correcting rebound after a sharp decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はインフレの鎮静化とともに金利は低下していたが、先週の雇用統計の大幅な改善を受けて急上昇。一方日本は日銀の利上げ観測が一段と弱まり金利低下。U.S. interest rates had been declining as inflation calmed, but they surged sharply following a significant improvement in last week's employment statistics. Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike has further weakened, leading to a drop in interest rates.

外国人投資家の売り越しは継続した。Net selling by foreign investors continued.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は先の１０兆円規模の介入以来再び１６０円を目指してじり高であったが、米金利の低下により円高に反転。その後また利上げ長期化を想定して円安になっている。Since the recent 10 trillion yen intervention, the USD/JPY gradually rose, aiming for 160 yen. However, it reversed to yen appreciation due to the decline in U.S. interest rates. Subsequently, the yen weakened again, anticipating prolonged rate hikes.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

三菱商事は減益予想で下落。Mitsubishi Corporation is experiencing a decline due to forecasted lower profits.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

ウクライナ支援の米議会承認はようやく成立した。武器は前線に届きつつあり、劣勢を回復しつつあるようだ。The approval from the US Congress for aid to Ukraine has finally been achieved. Weapons are beginning to reach the front lines, and it seems that the Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining their footing.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

今回の下落がどこまで掘るか。昨年のケースだと、全治３か月。How far this downturn will go remains uncertain. Based on last year's case, the recovery period could be around three months.

３か月でも戻るか、米株の全面崩壊で全治５年になるか。米株がハードランディングする理由はいくつもある。コロナ給付預金の枯渇、失業率の立ち上がり、不動産崩壊開始、地銀連続破綻と政府支援の限界、中国経済破綻で世界GDPの激減、もしトラ不安などなど。なにせ、米国のコロナ支援はGDPの２５％だったことが重要。この異常な刺激策の副作用はリーマンショック後の中銀BS拡大に加えて未知の世界。It could rebound within three months, or if there's a complete collapse of the US stock market, it could take five years for recovery. There are several reasons why the US stock market could experience a hard landing, such as the depletion of coronavirus relief funds, rising unemployment rates, the beginning of a real estate collapse, consecutive failures of regional banks reaching the limits of government support, a sharp decline in global GDP due to the collapse of the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions. After all, the fact that US coronavirus relief amounted to 25% of GDP is significant. The side effects of this abnormal stimulus package, added to the expansion of central bank balance sheets after the Lehman shock, lead to an unknown territory.

ハードランディングを防ぐためにパウエルが逆イールド解消まで利下げすると、皮肉にも、ハードランディング開始の狼煙となる。ハードランディングのもう一つのトリガーである失業率が実質上昇傾向にあるが、しかしこのタイミングで利下げすると、インフレを２％以下にできないジレンマ。Ironically, if Powell lowers interest rates until the yield curve inversion is resolved to prevent a hard landing, it may ironically signal the beginning of the hard landing. Another trigger for a hard landing is the upward trend in the unemployment rate, but lowering interest rates at this point creates a dilemma of not being able to keep inflation below 2%.

３月９月は外人売りが出やすいアノマリーも。March and September tend to see anomalies where foreign selling is more likely.

一方、ＡＩハイテクの物語は、未だ、最終消費者までのサイクルが完成しておらず、まだ物語ベースでの買いが続いていた。NVIDIAも、データセンター向けのサイクルだけでは成長に限界があるのを自ら示している。On the other hand, the AI high-tech narrative hasn't fully completed its cycle to reach the end consumer, and buying based on the narrative continues. NVIDIA, for example, has shown that growth is limited solely to the data center cycle.

植田は基本、国民生活より供給者側を支援するアベノミクス側の人。通貨の番人など、とっくに返上している。いくら緩和してもインフレにならなかった日本をインフレにしてくれた円安を、やすやすと手放すことは無いかも。株価の本格崩壊が始まったら、異次元緩和の延長もあるか。もしくは、解除後もカーブ実質介入しまくり等々。Mr. Ueda fundamentally supports the supply side of Abenomics rather than the livelihoods of the citizens. He has long since given up the role of currency guardian, among others. It's possible that he won't easily give up the yen depreciation that brought inflation to Japan, which had failed to materialize no matter how much easing was done. If a full-scale collapse in stock prices begins, there may be an extension of unconventional easing measures. Alternatively, there could be continued substantial intervention in the yield curve even after the tapering.

色々考えると、不確定要素満載で、次のトレンドが現れるまで一旦手じまいという人も多いだろう。With so many uncertainties, many people might choose to sit on the sidelines until the next trend emerges.