AI 株価予測 20230428の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230428 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20230428の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230428　8306MUFG

米GDPは予想より低下し、日銀は金利据え置き。米金利上昇は５／４で、いよいよ頭打ちか。金利も再降下。銀行株は暴落だが、まだレンジの中にいる。US GDP went down further than expectation, while BOJ kept easing stance. US interest rate hike may end on May 4th coming soon. JPN interest rate collapsed down as before. Japanese Bank stocks started collapsing however, they are still within the range. 

一つ注目されるのは日銀のフォワードガイダンスの廃止だ。実際にかなりのインフレが生じている今、インフレを期待しろという政策は不要となったということ。これはデフレからは脱却したことを認めたことと同じだ。すなわち今後は現状位置もしくは利上げ方向に進むことを意思表示したものととらえられる。One thing to note is the abolishment of BOJ's forward guidance. Now we see considerable inflation already happening, hence there is no need to provide people impression that inflation is coming. Looks BOJ admit that deflation phase is over. This means policy from now will be interest rate hike but not interest rate easing, or, at least keeping the same level as now. 

パウエルとしては「全てよし」としたいだろうが、米不動産バブル崩壊は不可避だろう。本年度末までの大暴落を待つ。Powell may wish to make all happy but US real estate bubble burst will be inevitable. Let's wait for catastrophic crush coming toward the end of this year. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.

3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値AI予測は下落。AI forecasted downward trend.

三菱商事も同様に上下。Mitsubishi went down and up as well.

長谷工も同じく。Same for Haseko. 

ウクライナの兵器増強はひとまず完了した模様。５月入りしていよいよ反転攻勢が始まりそうだ。Ukraine looks now ready for weapon supply from West. Entering in May, real offensive is going to happen.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

JGB利回りは再度下落。現状変化なしを素直に反映。JGB yield stated to fall down again reflecting the non change of the monetary policy.

3LB Month/Week/Day

[今回予測20230428］Forecast at this time 

No Change

[前回予測20230421］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

下値の目途は次のようだ。Resistance of upward range trend is as below.

AI 株価予測 20230421の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230421 8306MUFG

 AI 株価予測 20230421の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230421　8306MUFG

米インフレは収まりつつあり、FEDの金利上昇も頭打ちになりそう。バフェットは日本株を買うと宣言。US inflation is going to calm down and FED interest rate hike may stop soon. Buffet declared the purchase of Japanese stocks. 

今後は不動産ローンの連鎖破綻から始まる暴落が焦点。Now focus is when market crash starts  due to chain reaction of real estate loan bankruptcies. 

来週の日銀金利決定会合は植田体制の今後を占う試金石。何が出てくるか、何を言うかが楽しみ。BOJ interest rate decision next week will be a major event to foresee the future of Ueda regime. Very much looking forward to seeing what will come out and what he will say. 

年後半に向けての暴落を待って、次の資金を投入する方針に変化なし。No change to the strategy to wait for another crash coming toward the end of this year. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.

3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値AI予測は下落。AI forecasted downward trend.

三菱商事も同様に上下。Mitsubishi went down and up as well.

長谷工も同じく。Same for Haseko. 

ウクライナは反転攻勢に向け準備中。来年の大統領選でトランプが復活すると、米国のウクライナ支援も終了する可能性が高いのが心配。Ukraine is now preparing for major offensive. All worry that once Trump comes back as US president next year, US support to Ukraine may stop. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

JGB利回りが戻り基調。植田YCC解除を想定しているのか。JGB yield is on recovery track.  Market is dreaming YCC removal by Ueda?

3LB Month/Week/Day

[今回予測20230421］Forecast at this time 

No Change

[前回予測20230414］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

下値の目途は次のようだ。Resistance of upward range trend is as below.

 ファンド安定運用方法　Stable Fund Management Method

株の運用では、現物でも、高値掴み、底値売りの連続で退場となる人は多い。また、信用取引では元手の何倍ものポジションを持つこともでき、退場までの時間は短縮される。Many are forced to get out of stock market by repeated buys at high and sells at the bottom even on cash trading basis.  Also for margin trading, one can create position many times bigger than the original fund, making end of game to come faster. 

なぜか。Why this happen?

最大の原因は資金管理ができていないから。The biggest reason is the lack of essential skill on risk exposure management. 

相場情報を得たい人が最初に知りたいこと。それは、相場が上がるか下がるか。The 1st thing people wish to know about stock market is whether the market will go up or down.

しかし、それより大事なのが資金管理。 However, more importantly, people need to know their own exposure at risk against the whole asset they own.

上がる、下がる事象は予測通りになる保証はどこにもない。 There is no guarantee that stock market will go up or down as they expect. 

不確定なものに１００％の資金を投入しては、外れた場合にリカバリーが不能。If they put 100% money into the risk asset, recovery will be impossible if market moves against the expectation. 

相場格言では「満玉張るな」。Stock market has maxim, 'Never put all money in'.

ここで、ポジポジ病の人には耐えられないかもしれないが、一つの提案。収益は配当＋売買益。Here is one proposal although it can be difficult to follow for always-full-investment type of people. Income is dividend, plus trading profit.

自分の全資産を３つに分ける。Divide assets into three. 

１／３は高格付け、ディフェンシブな現物、高配当銘柄。売買はOKだが、基本売り切らない。1/3 for highly investment graded, cash basis, defensive, high yield stocks. Can buy & sell but keep the balance forever basically. 

１／３はキャッシュだが、高配当銘柄がリーマンショックやコロナ暴落のような大暴落をした時に追加購入する。株価が戻れば売却。1/3 for cash but use to buy more high yield stocks at the time of catastrophic crash such as Lehman shock or Covid-19 crash.  Sell of once market recovers. 

１／３はリーマンショックや、コロナ暴落を超える想定外の事態が発生した場合の準備。1/3 for real contingency beyond Lehman shock or Covid-19 shock. 

これで自己資金運用はかなり安全かつ有効だ。日本株が世界から見放されている現状、配当利回り５％近辺の安定銘柄を探すのには苦労しないからだ。Above provides safe and effective fund management. Currently Japanese stock market is left deserted globally hence it is not difficult to find stocks with stable dividend yield around 5%.

AI 株価予測 20230414の状況8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230414 8306MUFG

  AI 株価予測 20230414の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast - 20230414　8306MUFG

米インフレ発表はインフレの終息を示唆。パウエルの利上げ停止予測から相場は反転。ただ、米不動産バブル崩壊、銀行破綻連鎖、ロシア問題による資源インフレ、中国の台湾侵略など底入れとは言い難い状態。US inflation looks now on calming down phase. Market expected Pawel's rate cut driving market to bounce up. Meanwhile, US real estate burst, bank run chain reaction, Russia invasion oriented commodity inflation as well as China's invasion to Taiwan are still imminent, making it hard to declare the bottoming of stock market. 

本年中は大暴落を待って買うスタンス。収益・配当に変更なしの場合、レベル的には５００円近辺まで落ちたら買い。The basic stance is to wait for massive market crash during this year.  As long as revenue as as well as dividend do not change, 500 level will be a timing to buy. 

トレード詳細はこちら。トレード枠利用は3/3。長期枠利用は3/3。Trade details are here.

3/3 limit holding at the point of weekend. Long term holding utilization is 3/3.

新値AI予測は下落。AI forecasted downward trend.

三菱商事も同様に上下。Mitsubishi went down and up as well.

長谷工も同じく。Same for Haseko. 

ウクライナの状況も錯綜。世界は混沌へ。Ukraine situation is getting more and more complex. World is getting into chaos. 

米銀株、USTU10とSPX  US Banks, UST10＆SPX

米金利の今後　US FF rate forecast

JGB利回りが戻り基調。植田YCC解除を想定しているのか。JGB yield is on recovery track.  Market is dreaming YCC removal by Ueda?

3LB Month/Week/Day

[今回予測20230414］Forecast at this time 

No Change

[前回予測20230331］Previous Forecast 

Midterm Range

下値の目途は次のようだ。Resistance of upward range trend is as below.