AI 株価予測 20240802の状況8306MUFG

Stock Price AI Forecast -20240802

２つの大きな事象が起きた。１つ目は、日銀の０．２５％利上げと２年間で国債買い入れ月額３兆円減額。２つめは、FOMC利下げ示唆と米失業率のサームルール発動で長期金利低下。その結果、円高は１４６円まで進行し、米国株、日本株とも大幅に下落。Two major events occurred. The first was the Bank of Japan's 0.25% interest rate hike and a reduction in government bond purchases by 3 trillion yen per month over two years. The second was the FOMC's hint at a rate cut and the triggering of the Sahm Rule due to the US unemployment rate, which led to a decrease in long-term interest rates. Consequently, the yen appreciated to 146 yen, and both US and Japanese stocks dropped significantly.

財務省介入を始めに円高が引き続き進行する中の日銀の利上げに、当初日経平均は論理とは逆に大幅上昇し、あたかも日本株は円高に耐性ができたように見えた。しかし、その後、FOMCにおいてパウエルが９月の利下げを暗示すると、米国株の反落に続いて、日経平均は大幅に下落。Initially, despite the Bank of Japan's rate hike amid ongoing yen appreciation starting with intervention by the Ministry of Finance, the Nikkei 225 surged dramatically, seemingly indicating that Japanese stocks had become resilient to yen appreciation. However, when Powell hinted at a rate cut in September during the FOMC meeting, US stocks declined, followed by a significant drop in the Nikkei 225.

MUFGのQ1決算が発表されたが、サプライズなし。一方、みずほは２８％、三井住友は５０％の増益。しかし、今回の市場下落では、メガバンクは同様の比率で下落。MUFG's Q1 earnings were announced without any surprises. On the other hand, Mizuho saw a 28% increase in profits, and Sumitomo Mitsui saw a 50% increase. However, in the recent market downturn, mega banks fell by similar ratios.

今後は次の展開を予想。Here are the forecasts for the next developments:

ここ１ー２週間Next 1-2 Weeks:

ADRが更に５％下がっていること、米株のサームルール発動による下落、信用買いの追証決済売りで週前半は下げるが、日曜DAWが下げ止まっていることに加え、下落スピードが速すぎるためどこかで反発。しかし反発はネックラインで跳ね返されて反落し、日米株価は再下降。ADR is expected to drop another 5%, US stocks to fall due to the Sahm Rule, and margin call selling to drive down prices in the early part of the week. However, with the Dow showing signs of bottoming out on Sunday and the rapid decline in stock prices, a rebound is expected at some point. But this rebound will likely be short-lived as it hits the neckline and then retreats, causing US and Japanese stock prices to fall again.

８－１２月August-December:

パウエルの利下げと、植田の利上げ、NISAの解約による円レパトリ、円キャリー解消が円高を加速させ、日経平均をさらに下落させる。サームルール発動により、米株はさらに下落し、世界的に株安の局面。Powell’s rate cut, Ueda’s rate hike, repatriation of yen from NISA redemptions, and unwinding of yen carry trades will accelerate yen appreciation, further dragging down the Nikkei 225. The Sahm Rule will cause further declines in US stocks, leading to a global stock market downturn.

不確定要因Uncertainties:

米国債１０年ー２年金利の逆ザヤが解消されてから数カ月して景気後退に入ってきた歴史があるが、現状、逆ザヤはまだ解消されていない。このため、今回の米株下落は前振りで早晩反発し、本格的な米株調整は米利下げがある９月以降かもしれない。Historically, a few months after the inversion of the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yield curve resolves, an economic recession ensues. Currently, the inversion has not resolved. Therefore, the current drop in US stocks might be a precursor, with a substantial correction possibly occurring after the US rate cut in September.

トレードTrading:

月火の下落継続を見て下落継続かと思いきや、決算発表日前の水曜日の日銀利上げ後に急上昇、下落トレンドを上抜けてきた。日銀が利上げしたのに株が上昇するという有り得ない状況に強烈な違和感は感じたが、いよいよ買いチャンスかと思った。ところが、木曜日は利上げ株安のロジックが復活し、MUFG株も下げたが、底値近くでリミット１／１０買えたため、持ち越しとした。その夜、NY株が失業率発表後、サームルール始動で急落するとともに、復活した利上げ株安ロジックで日経平均先物は急落。金曜日の朝にロスカットした結果、２０２４年の収益の１／１０が減ってしまった。その後、夜間、ADRでMUFG株は更に下げ続けた。After witnessing continued declines on Monday and Tuesday, I anticipated the downtrend to persist. Surprisingly, following the Bank of Japan's rate hike on Wednesday, the market surged, breaking the downtrend. Despite feeling a strong sense of unease about stocks rising despite a rate hike, I thought it was finally a buying opportunity. However, on Thursday, the logic of stocks falling due to a rate hike returned, and MUFG stock also fell. I managed to buy near the bottom, holding on. That night, NY stocks plummeted following the unemployment rate announcement and the activation of the Sahm Rule, causing Nikkei futures to plunge. On Friday morning, I had to cut my losses, resulting in a 10% reduction in 2024 profits. MUFG stocks continued to decline in ADR trading overnight.

選挙戦から降りたバイデンの後継にはハリスが指名され、民主党大会で承認される模様。対トランプ支持率は６０対４０まで回復したが、２０％差を１１月５日までに埋められるか。Harris has been nominated as Biden's successor after he withdrew from the election race and is expected to be approved at the Democratic National Convention. Although support against Trump has recovered to 60-40, can the 20% gap be closed by November 5th?

メガバンク各社は各々、チャート上の抵抗線まで下落。Each of the megabanks has declined to the resistance line on their respective charts.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

中国株は年初から再上昇を始めているが、不動産問題が更に火を噴く可能性が高く、一時的な戻りと考えられる。Chinese stocks have been rebounding since the beginning of the year, but there is a high possibility of further escalation of the real estate issue, suggesting a temporary rebound.

半導体も急落。

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

今週は雇用統計など、米経済減速を示す経済指標の発表が相次いだ。来週は、木曜日のインフレ率発表。This week saw the release of various economic indicators pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, including employment statistics. Next week, the inflation rate will be announced on Thursday.

決算は山場を越えた。日経平均EPSに大きな変化はなかった。The earnings season has peaked. There was no significant change in the Nikkei 225's EPS.

US＄は未だ100bpの逆イールド状態。日本円は100bpの順イールド。The US dollar is still in a 100bp reverse yield curve, while the Japanese yen has a 100bp forward yield curve.

米金利はFOMCを受けて急激に下落。円金利は日銀のQTの速度が遅いことから下落。現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。US interest rates fell sharply following the FOMC meeting. Japanese interest rates also declined due to the slow pace of the Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening (QT). Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

外国人投資家が売り越し継続。買っているのは個人信用だけという悪いパターン。Foreign investors continue to be net sellers. The only ones buying are individual investors using margin, which is a concerning pattern.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

米逆イールドは健在。The US reverse yield curve remains intact.

ドル円は米CPI直後からの介入を受けて円高に振れたが、上昇トレンドを崩すまでは行わなかった。財務省もヘッジファンドではないということだろう。The yen strengthened against the dollar following intervention shortly after the release of the U.S. CPI, but it did not break the upward trend. It seems the Ministry of Finance is not acting like a hedge fund.

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドに復帰。Haseko went back to down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

三菱重工は大きく下落した。Mitsubishi Heavy Industries saw a significant decline.

ウクライナは時刻開発の長距離ドローン、FPVドローン、欧米供与の長距離ミサイル、により善戦しているが、ロシアは膨大な戦死者を厭わずに執拗に侵略を僅かずつ拡大している。トランプが幸運にも暗殺を免れ神格化されたヒーローとなってしまったうえ、バイデンの健康が支持率を妨げている今、１１月の大統領選はトランプに大きく傾いている。その結果、ウクライナの将来、ひいては、グローバルな安全の枠組みには暗雲が立ち込めている。一方、ロシアの戦争を仕掛けた国内の犠牲も限界に近付きつつある。Ukraine is putting up a good fight using domestically developed long-range drones, FPV drones, and long-range missiles supplied by Western countries. However, Russia is persistently expanding its invasion little by little, showing no concern for the massive number of casualties. With Trump narrowly escaping assassination and becoming a deified hero, and Biden's health hindering his approval ratings, the November presidential election is heavily tilted in Trump's favor. As a result, dark clouds are looming over Ukraine's future and the global security framework. On the other hand, the domestic toll of Russia's war efforts is also nearing its limit.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.