Fin-techと銀行の行きつく先
Fin-tech and Ultimate Future of Banking Industry
銀行取引のAPI開放、中央銀行デジタル通貨、マイナンバー本格利用など、世界のFin-techの流れは止まらない。銀行の行きつく先はどのようになるか考えてみた。The wave of Fin-tech revolution will not stop highlighted by open API of banking transaction, Central Bank Digital Currency, Total use of my numbers, etc. Here are some thoughts on the ultimate future of banking industry.
昔から銀行は多くを行ってきた。Bank has been doing lots of things.
１）決済 Settlement
２）信用リスク取り（貸出）Credit Risk Taking(lending)
３）資産保全（借入、預金受け入れ）Safeguard of assets(borrowing, deposits)
４）自己勘定トレーディング Proprietary trading
５）貿易金融サービス Trade finance services
６）資金管理サービス Cash management services
７）プロジェクトファイナンス Project Financing
８）証券化 Securitisation
９）Merger and Acquisition services
しかし、円のコイン化実現も含めたFin-tech変革後は、But after Fin-Tech Revolution, including central bank digital currency, going live,
１）決済は日銀勘定の上の円コインでPTP決済されるため、銀行を介さない。Settlement will be done on bank of Japan's balance sheet by way of PTP settlement of Yen Coin, hence no need to go through bank's balance sheet anymore.
２）貸出はPTPで銀行から。信用リスクは顧客クレジット情報に基づき、銀行は自らリスクを取るか、もしくはCDSを購入（Protectionを購入）し、破産リスクプレミアム支払いを貸出金利にチャージ。CDS購入でCDSを証券化して外販することも。貸出先信用リスク査定業務は継続。担保評価、抵当権設定、登記もすべてマイナンバーの下に電子化され、業務は効率化。Lending will keep extended from bank on PTP basis. Bank will either take credit risk of lender on its own or purchase CDS for hedge while charge risk premium on top of lending interest rate. CDS purchase can be procured by securitization and sell off of CDS. Credit risk assessment will keep going. Process efficiency will increase due to "my number" coverage over notarization of real estates, collateralize, and valuation.
３）資産保全は日銀勘定の上の円コインがリスクフリーなので、不要に。ただ、利用者は銀行の倒産リスクプレミアムを銀行から受け取り、銀行に預け続けることも可能に。Safeguard of asset will no longer required as bank function since Yen coin is a part of bank of Japan balance sheet. However there is a choice to place Yen coin to bank by taking risk premium of default of bank.
４）自己勘定トレーディングは引き続き許容範囲で可能 Propriety trading will keep going within the approved limit.
５）貿易為替サービスは引き続き可能 Trade finance will keep going
６）資金管理サービスも引き続き可能 Cash management service will keep going
７）プロジェクトファイナンスも引き続き可能 Project financing will keep going
８）証券化サービスも引き続き可能 Securitization will keep going
９）MAサービスも引き続き可能 Merger and Acquisition will keep going
Fin-tech革命後の銀行業務は、より高度なサービスの提供が中心となりそうだ。ただ、決済および預金預かり業務は退縮するだろう。The banking industry after Fin-Tech revolution will be focused more on higher level services. Meanwhile, settlement and deposit taking business can shrink.