AI 株価予測 20211203の状況8306MUFG
Stock Price AI Forecast - 20211203 Status 8306MUFG

オミクロン株を材料に日経平均は下落。MUFGも下落したが、週末に向け値を戻した。オミクロン株は、伝染力が激増した分、軽症のようで、今回のコロナ騒動の終結となる可能性がある。一方、FRBはテーパリングを早めに開始する様子で、NY株は金曜日急落、日経先物も連れ安。Nikkei went down naming Omicron variant as a cause. MUFG went down as well but came back toward the end of week. Omicron mutated highly infectious while symptom became much milder, implying people, the end of Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, FRB is expected to start tapering earlier making NY stock to crash followed by Japan stock.

驚いたのはテーパリングが開始するというのに金利が下落したということ。売った株を一時的に債券に退避したのか、もしくは、株安をFRBが懸念して低金利を継続するという読みだろう。確かにテーパリング＝金利上昇ではないとパウエルは発言、技術的にも満期分を買い直さない自然減方式なら金利上昇圧力にはならない。ただ、FRBはインフレ亢進の懸念も言及するようになってきており、今後金利が上昇する可能性もある。One amazing part is the drop of interest rate irrespective of the start of tapering. It may be the asset shift from equity to UST as NY stock crash, or it may be based on the expectation that FRB fears the crash of stock market and may decide to keep low interest rate. It is true that Powell said tapering is not equal to interest rate hike, and it is technically possible if FRB take natural reduction approach for tapering. However recently FRB started to mention the inflation progress, hence it is possible that interest rate may go up from now.


週明け、先物やADR下落を材料に日経平均は下落し、MUFGも引きずられ下落するだろう。加えて、恒大グループ、中国株の米国上場廃止、コロナの行方、経済再開に伴う資源高、地震頻発など、波乱材料は満載。Next week, I expect Nikkei to drop followed by MUFG, due to the drop of weekend Nikkei future as well as ADR. On top of that there are lots of market shakers out there including Ever Grande group, China Stock ban in US stock market, Covid-19, commodity price hike due to economy reopening as well as frequent earthquakes.


長期ポジションの積み増しは、先週と同様、500円台中盤になってから考える。高配当利回りが安心材料。The timing of another investment will be around mid 500 just like previous week. High dividend is reassuring.

 

１０年金利　Interest Rate10Yr

[今回予測20211203］Forecast at this time 

[前回予測20211126］Previous Forecast 

MUFG 3LB M/W/D

Mid Term Upward Range